(Updated 17/3/2020)

What is the difference between an epidemic and a pandemic?

An epidemic is the rapid spread of infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. The annual influenza outbreak during the winter months is an often overlooked epidemic.

A disease is said to be endemic if infection is maintained at baseline level in a region due to local factors (like climate or fauna). An example of a disease that is endemic in certain regions is Malaria.

A pandemic is the uncontrolled, worldwide spread of an epidemic. Certain infections can develop in animals and then begin to affect humans, who then may pass it on to other humans. As humans will not have built up any resistances to these viruses, infection can progress rapidly.

Transmission usually occurs through contact with bodily fluids (e.g. Ebola) or via droplets/aerosols (e.g. Influenza and Coronavirus).

Epidemics and pandemics are contained using measures to interrupt the modes of transmission, for example by isolating infected persons or disinfecting surfaces and hands.

What is the Coronavirus?

Viruses transmitting Influenza circulate worldwide in humans as well as in animals and constantly change their genetic makeup. Because of this genetic variation and the possibility of reassortment (viruses swapping gene segments) between different influenza sub-types, new viruses can make the ‘jump’ from animals to humans (e.g. Influenza A(H5N1) from birds, or the ‘swine-flu’, Influenza A(H3N2(v)).

When such a virus causes disease in humans and is transmitted easily from human to human (this is not always the case), and the majority of the population has no or low immunity against the virus, it can cause an epidemic or pandemic.

In December 2019, a localised outbreak of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) started causing Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in China. This is now causing a global pandemic, infecting over 160,000 people worldwide.
The WHO currently assesses the risk globally as ‘very high’.

How could your business be affected?

The WHO has declared the COVID19 outbreak a pandemic. The situation in heavily affected countries like China, South Korea and Italy shows that the impact on businesses is high – when relying on global supply-chains or markets even if they are not in an affected area themselves.

Enterprises can be affected directly and indirectly:

  • Uncertainty and concern among employees who may miss work for fear of infection or who are distracted by concerns for their dependents,
  • Limits to international or even local travel,
  • Infection of own staff,
  • Supply or demand changing due to affected suppliers or clients/customers.
    Note that demand can go up or down – according to latest reports, Amazon is currently attempting to increase its workforce.

This can lead to localised drops in productivity, shortages of workforce or even the closure of plants or offices.

It is also possible for entire sectors to be affected, such as can be seen in the global travel industry. The effect of the pandemic in China on supply chains in the automotive or pharma industry will only become fully apparent in the coming weeks.

The impact on an individual business is harder to estimate generally, as it will depend on products / services provided, clients, suppliers, organisational structure and size. The impact of a pandemic also depends on the percentage of employees affected at any one time, with smaller, centralised companies more likely to have a larger percentage affected at once.
Generally, the percentage of employees affected does relate to the duration of the impact – if 100% of employees were affected, the vast majority would recover within at most 2 weeks. At 25% rolling, this could affect the organisation for a maximum of 10 weeks, and so on, always assuming the worst-case scenario of a full-blown epidemic where a majority of the population will contract the virus at one point.
(The likelihood of this happening is unclear. Even in the heavily affected Hubei province, the WHO currently reports 67,000 confirmed cases among a population of roughly 6 million, with the rate of new infections slowing. We do not know, at present, how many people are actually infected and develop no symptoms or have not come to the attention of the authorities. Also, China is a special case in many respects and a prediction for spread in Europe and the UK is difficult.)

The best strategy is to plan for a worst case scenario with plans flexible enough to be adjusted for less severe events.

What is the actual risk of Coronavirus infection?

The general risk of an individual employee contracting coronavirus in the UK overall is currently high, but can be lowered as long as travel is avoided and general hygiene and social distancing measures are followed. Risks may be significantly higher locally, e.g. in London.

Possible, additional risk factors are close contact with a large number of people, e.g. in customer service as well as travel to, living in or working in heavily affected areas (nationally and internationally).

This situation can, however, change rapidly and should be monitored closely. See links below for additional information and resources.

Enterprise pandemic planning

There are a number of steps companies should take to reduce the impact of a pandemic (not just COVID19):

  • Increase the cleaning frequency in your buildings and ensure surfaces such as buttons in lifts, door handles, handrails etc. are disinfected effectively by cleaning staff;
  • Consider measures to improve employee health during the winter months, for example by providing fresh fruit or fitness classes;
  • Reduce travel to the minimum level necessary to maintain operations and avoid travel to affected areas;
  • Where possibly, encourage staff to work from home or remotely;
  • Improve and support social distancing among the workforce and clients / customers (where relevant). If, for example, 50% of the workforce work from home, use only every other desk in the office or convert offices to single-occupancy.
  • Improve ventilation to reduce aerosol concentrations.
  • If you operate in shifts, or can operate in shifts (continue to) do so. Ensure the shifts are self-contained, i.e. all staff have a fixed shift with no rotation of personnel between shifts. Deep-clean and disinfect work places between shifts.
  • Monitor your sickness absences and encourage employees who feel unwell to stay at home or work from home without fear of repercussions by managers;
  • Create a central point of contact for questions around health-related matters – this could be through your occupational health provider;
  • Provide hand disinfectant for employees and visitors;
  • Allow for flexible working hours to allow employees to avoid rush-hour.
  • Encourage employees to
    • avoid shaking hands;
    • use their arm to cover their mouth when sneezing or coughing instead of their hands;
    • get relevant immunisations and keep them up to date. You may wish to offer ‘flu shots’ during office hours;
    • avoid public transport and rely on own cars, walking or cycling where possible;
    • avoid public travel at peak times, where completely avoiding public transport is impossible;
  • Pandemics can affect supply and demand – risk assess your supply chains and investigate alternative sources where feasible. Note that demand for certain products or services could go up or down during a pandemic;
  • If you expect sustained (or increased) demand for products during a pandemic, increase stockpiles and reduce reliance on just-in-time supply chains;
  • If services can be provided remotely, develop processes and procedures to facilitate this;
  • Plan for a safer provision of on-site services, such as limiting the number of people allowed into shops or on premises, requiring the use of face-masks, providing hand-sanitiser, wrapping products hygienically, or using screens between clients and employees.
  • Plan for a crisis and ensure your business continuity planning, crisis management procedures are up to date and staff are appropriately trained – this includes identifying your critical business processes, clients and suppliers, estimating likelihood of disruption and planning specific continuity measures.

If you need specific help or advice with appropriate and proportionate enterprise pandemic response, talk to us!

Links

WHO situation reports
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

WHO pandemic phases
https://www.who.int/influenza/resources/documents/pandemic_phase_descriptions_and_actions.pdf

UK Government information:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Image credit:
Centre for Disease Control, Photo by Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAM